Rahul Gandhi: Building Dalit Leadership?

The Economic Times today published an article claiming that Rahul Gandhi’s Dalit Leadership Mission (DLM) has produced results in the recent Uttar Pradesh elections.

The key points of the article are as below.

  • Due to seat sharing arrangement with SP, Congress got 27 seats in Reserved Constituencies
  • 18 out of the 27 Congress candidates in those constituencies were chosen from Rahul Gandhi’s DLM
  • Out of those 18, Congress had not contested in 3 seats in 2012
  • In the remaining 15 seats, total number of votes increased from 437448 to 660880 representing a 51% jump in votes for Congress from last time.
  • In the 3 seats where it contested now in 2017, but not in 2012, Congress polled between 20000 to 53000 votes which represents a good show

Clearly, the article is biased and is only meant as propaganda for the Congress Vice-President, at a time when his currency is at its lowest, perhaps even within Congress circles.

The article purposely leaves out the fact that in 2012, Congress and SP contested WITHOUT any alliance. In other words, they contested against each other. Whereas in 2017, there was a tie-up between the two.

As a result of the alliance, in almost all these seats in 2017, Congress and SP contested alone. So the correct comparison would be to pool the total votes of Congress and SP from 2012 and 2017 and compare them.

And that’s exactly I managed to do below.

The table below captures the following details

  • List of 29 reserved seats in UP (couldn’t manage to narrow it down to the 18 that Economic Times quotes)
  • In 8 out of the 29 seats, both Congress AND SP have contested in spite of the alliance 🙂
  • Votes polled by Congress in 2017
  • Votes polled by SP in 2017
  • Total votes polled by Congress and SP in 2017
  • Votes polled by Congress in 2012
  • Votes polled by SP in 2012
  • Total votes polled by Congress and SP in 2012

NOTE: I HAVE ROUNDED OFF THE VOTES TO THE NEAREST THOUSAND IN MOST CASES. THIS DOES NOT AFFECT THE FINAL CONCLUSIONS IN ANY WAY, AS THE NUMBERS THEMSELVES WILL CLEARLY SHOW.

Reserved Constituency Congress 2017 SP 2017 Congress 2012 SP 2012
agra rural 30000 0 38000 51000
bachrawan 43000 0 29000 59000
baldev 840 9000 0 10000
balrampur 65000 0 21000 47000
bara 2000 45000 20000 46000
chandausi 59000 0 14000 56000
duddhi 46000 0 0 36000
ghatampur 40000 0 42000 50000
hapur 70000 0 77000 8900
hathras 27000 0 46000 30000
iglas 21000 0 0 33000
jagdishpur 68000 0 56000 51000
kadipur 32000 0 12000 97000
khaga 39000 0 8000 21000
khajani 4500 42000 9000 30000
khurja 53000 0 98000 2500
koraon 47000 4000 10000 25000
maharajganj 50000 0 16000 84000
mehroni 43000 27000 41000 67000
mohan 35000 0 19000 31000
naraini 47000 0 20000 47000
nehtaur 54000 0 0 32000
purqazi 66000 2500 45000 40000
rampur maniharan 62000 0 51000 47000
rath 43000 0 91000 55000
salon 62000 0 48000 69000
sandi 52000 0 27000 66000
soraon 840 55000 22000 61000
zaidpur 82000 4000 52000 77000
Congress + SP 2017 Congress + SP 2012 Increase in votes
30000 89000 NO
43000 88000 NO
9840 10000 NO
65000 68000 NO
47000 66000 NO
59000 70000 NO
46000 36000 YES
40000 92000 NO
70000 85900 NO
27000 76000 NO
21000 33000 NO
68000 107000 NO
32000 109000 NO
39000 29000 YES
46500 39000 YES
53000 100500 NO
51000 35000 YES
50000 100000 NO
70000 108000 NO
35000 50000 NO
47000 67000 NO
54000 32000 YES
68500 85000 NO
62000 98000 NO
43000 146000 NO
62000 117000 NO
52000 93000 NO
55840 83000 NO
86000 129000 NO

As you can see from the above table(s), in spite of having the entire Samajwadi Party code base at its disposal due to the tie-up, the Congress party has managed to increase the votes in ONLY 5 OUT OF 29 RESERVED SEATS.

And out of these 5, there is no data available to figure out if any of the candidates came from Rahul Gandhi’s DLM, since the Economic Times article does not publish the list of constituencies where candidates from DLM stood.

The Economic Times is comparing Apples to Oranges by leaving out the fact that there was a tie-up in 2017 and no tie-up in 2012.

One more attempt at propaganda for the family caught, I would say!

Edit: It turns out in Duddhi constituency, in 2012, Congress supported an Independent candidate who garnered about 42,000 votes. So in effect, Congress obtained about 77,000 votes in 2012 whereas the figure has actually dropped to 46,000 in 2017. Therefore, it is actually a decline in this constituency as well!

References:

  1. 2017 UP Results Candidate Wise 
  2. Reserved Constituencies in UP
  3. 2012 UP Results Candidate Wise
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